Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

The following information was taken from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Click here for the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007:Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis" webpage.I have linked each reference on this page directly to the specific page sited in the assessment report.

Regional Climate Change Projections
Projected Climate Change for the Caribbean is relatively interesting. This particular area is unique because it  shares features with both the Continental United States and with Central America.  As a result, the region may experience a change in climate that is very different from the popularly publicized global warming woes (such as extensive flooding). Most scientific models predict that there will be a decrease in precipitation for the entire Caribbean region (IPPC, 2007). A 2006 study found "a modest but statistically significant summer drying trend over recent decades in the Caribbean in several observational data sets" (IPPC, 2007). This is a particularly disturbing trend for nations like Haiti that are heavily agricultural.

Image taken from the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007:Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis." These are images of change in precipitation for the region calculated for the region. 

While scientists have noticed an obvious sea level rise at about 30S for the region, they are uncertain about making projections for future sea level changes (IPPC, 2007). Therefore, it is difficult to make an educated guess how much the shorelines for the Caribbean islands will be altered from rising sea levels. Also, scientists are uncertain "about the changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones on a regional basis than for temperature and precipitation changes" (IPPC, 2007). Depending on how warm the ocean becomes and if the region for hurricane formation changes in the future, Haiti could face more or less hurricanes in the future.

From United Nations Photo on flikr. Here, Jordanian UN soldiers help orphans in the aftermath of hurricane Ike. Scientists are uncertain if more hurricanes make landfall on Hispaniola due to Climate Change. 

 Specific Climate Impacts:
(For this particular section, I used this page about specific climate impacts for small islands from IPCC 2007 Report’s Working Group II:  Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for policymakers. This section of the report did not feature specific page of Climate Change impacts for the Caribbean region.)

Overall, small islands-- whether in the Caribbean or in the North Sea-- will be heavily impacted from Global Climate Change, such as "sea-level rise and extreme events." Island economies are expected to decline due to the "[d]eterioration in coastal conditions;" industries that will be effected are fishing and tourism. "Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities."  Islands in the Pacific and Caribbean are projected to face water shortages "during low-rainfall periods." An island's ecosystem "particularly [...] mid- and high-latitude islands" will be altered due to "increased invasion by non-native species" influenced by increasing temperatures. (IPCC, 2007)  

Detailed Look at Future Climate: 

Scientists estimate that there is a moderate chance that the occurrence of  infectious disease will  increase on small islands due to climate change. Outbreaks, such as the Haitian malaria outbreak in 2006, will increase.  "Other climate-sensitive diseases of concern to small islands include diarrhoeal diseases, heat stress, skin diseases, acute respiratory infections and asthma. The observed increasing incidence of many of these diseases in small islands is attributable to a combination of factors, including poor public health practices, inadequate infrastructure, poor waste management practices, increasing global travel, and changing climatic conditions" (IPCC, 2007). 

Photo by "audra k." on flikr. An informative poster in creole about preventing malaria. Cases of malaria in Haiti may increase due to climate change. 

As previously stated, the Caribbean region is expected to experience water shortages. "Under all Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, reduced rainfall in summer is projected for this region, so that it is unlikely that demand would be met during low rainfall periods. Increased rainfall in winter is unlikely to compensate, due to lack of storage and high runoff during storms."  In addition to water loss, "[s]ea-level rise, inundation, seawater intrusion into freshwater lenses, [and] soil salinisation [...] are very likely to adversely impact coastal agriculture." Other possible outcomes for the future climate are: increased likelihood of sea-level rise and "vulnerability" to natural disasters, reduction in the size of islands (affecting infrastructure), decline of local fisheries, loss of native species,  and negative effects on the tourism industry. (IPCC, 2007)

Most Interesting Threat:

 Personally, I find that the most interesting threat to the Caribbean is a decrease in tourism. I enjoyed taking Macro and Micro economic courses in university, and believe that trade is an important tool for improving the welfare of mankind.  Therefore, I understand that an decline in a nation's economy will lead to a decrease in  welfare for all citizens. "Small economies are generally more exposed to external shocks, such as extreme events and climate change, than larger countries, because many of them rely on one or a few economic activities such as tourism or fisheries"(IPPC, 2007). In general, islands in the Caribbean rely heavily on tourism, unlike BRIC or North American economies. Caribbean islands are well known as a popular travel destination, often portrayed as sunny tropical locales with beautiful beaches. These beaches, however, are expected to change or disappear due to sea-level rise. "Shortage of water and increased risk of vector-borne diseases may steer tourists away from small islands, while warmer climates in the higher-latitude countries may also result in a reduction in the number of people who want to visit small islands in the tropical and sub-tropical regions" (IPPC, 2007). With a decrease in tourism,  small island nations could experience national economic crises. This is, however, a bit of an overstatement. If island governments are wise, they could potentially soften the potential economic blow by various means tailored to their own economy (IPPC, 2007).